Brazil's political chessboard: Who will make the winning move in 2026?

Brazil's presidential elections are set to take place in October next year, but key political developments and decisions are already shaping what is expected to be another tight electoral race.

Leftist President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is seen as the leading candidate for re-election and the figurehead of the left-wing forces seeking to prevent the rise of right-wing and center-right parties. However, Lula, who previously served two terms from 2003 to 2010, faces a challenge for election again due to his declining approval ratings, driven partly by inflation.

Meanwhile, the right-wing camp is searching for a candidate to replace former president Jair Bolsonaro, who governed from 2019 to 2022 but is barred from running in 2026. In 2023, Brazil's electoral court ruled Bolsonaro ineligible due to violations of electoral regulations.

Bolsonaro narrowly lost to Lula in the 2022 election, securing 49.1% of the votes against Lula's 50.9%.

To assess the potential candidates and their chances in the 2026 election, BNamericas spoke with political analysts.

Lula

"Lula remains a highly influential political figure despite the challenges of his current term. He has a strong party structure, extensive experience in coalition-building and the ability to regain political support ahead of next year's elections. His maneuvering power is significant," André Pereira César, a political analyst at Hold Consultoria, told BNamericas.

Acknowledging that the 2026 election will likely be another close race, Lula's administration is working to restore his approval ratings.

The government recently reduced taxes on imported food products to ease inflation. Additionally, a proposal is set to be sent to congress in the coming weeks to raise the income tax exemption threshold on workers' salaries. The administration also plans to approve new rules allowing private-sector employees to access payroll loans – currently available only to public servants – so they can secure lower-interest financing.

Tarcísio de Freitas

Since Bolsonaro's electoral rights were suspended, São Paulo governor Tarcísio de Freitas has emerged as a leading right-wing candidate for the presidency.

Freitas, who served as infrastructure minister during Bolsonaro's administration, now governs Brazil's wealthiest and most populous state. He has championed an agenda of concessions, PPPs, and privatizations, positioning himself in direct opposition to Lula's emphasis on increased public spending at the federal level.

"Tarcísio is currently the strongest right-wing candidate for Brazil's next presidential election, aside from Bolsonaro. While aligned with right-wing forces, he also has the potential to gain centrist support and attract backing from the business elite," said Mário Sérgio Lima, an analyst at Medley Global Advisors.

However, Lima noted that Freitas faces a dilemma. "He is in a strong position to secure an easy re-election as governor of São Paulo next year. He may choose to remain in that role and consider a presidential run in 2030, when Lula will be ineligible to run again, potentially giving him a clearer path to the presidency."

Ronaldo Caiado

Goiás governor Ronaldo Caiado has already announced his intention to run for president in 2026 and has been courting popular singer Gusttavo Lima as a potential running mate. Recent polls suggest Lima, considered an outsider candidate, could have real electoral appeal.

A former senator from the center-right União Brasil party, Caiado enjoys strong support among agribusiness leaders. However, he has struggled to unite the broader right-wing movement, with Bolsonaro himself refraining from endorsing his candidacy.

"Caiado could be a competitive candidate, but he faces significant challenges in securing backing from other right-wing political leaders," said Lima.

Romeu Zema

Minas Gerais governor Romeu Zema, a member of the center-right Novo party, has also stated that he intends to be candidate in 2026 as a right-wing alternative to Lula's administration.

Zema has pursued an aggressive privatization agenda, aiming to sell off state-controlled entities such as water utility Copasa, power utility Cemig, development bank BDMG and investment firm Codemge, which benefits from niobium royalties. These efforts are part of his broader strategy to address Minas Gerais' fiscal challenges.

"Before taking on Lula in 2026, Zema must first establish himself as a viable right-wing contender. At present, other governors with strong national recognition have an advantage over him. This is a major hurdle he must overcome," said César.

Ratinho Júnior

Paraná governor Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior, better known as Ratinho Júnior, has positioned himself as a potential presidential candidate, buoyed by record levels of public investment in his state.

Since taking office in 2019, he has overseen Paraná's rise to become Brazil's fourth-largest state economy, surpassing Rio Grande do Sul. His administration has balanced public spending with private-sector participation, utilizing PPPs and concessions to attract investment.

Affiliated with the center-right Social Democratic Party (PSD), Ratinho Júnior enjoys the backing of influential political figure Gilberto Kassab, who wields significant influence among centrist and center-right factions.

His electoral prospects are also boosted by his father, Ratinho, a well-known television presenter with a large nationwide following, particularly among lower-income voters – a demographic traditionally aligned with the left.

"Ratinho Júnior has the potential to gain traction largely thanks to his father, who is nationally known and also owns several radio and TV stations throughout Brazil. Furthermore, Ratinho Júnior is a moderate politician, which could attract stronger support from center parties," said Lima.

However, Lima warned that his biggest challenge will be expanding his national reach, "particularly in regions like the north and northeast, where he is not as well known."